pring2014,pp.115-149.

[16] Jacques,When China Rules the World,p.12.

[17] David C.Kang,"Hierarchy in Asian international relations:1300-1900,"Asian Security,1/1,2005,pp.53-79.See also Stefan Halper,The Beijing Consensus:How China's Authoritarian Model Will Dominate the Twenty-First Century(New York:Basic Books,2010).

[18] John Ikenberry,"The rise of China and the future of the West,"Foreign Affairs87/1,January/February2008,pp.23-38.

[19] Robert Kagan,"What China knows that we don't:The case for a new strategy of containment,"The Weekly Standard,January20,1997.Robert Kaplan,Asia's Cauldron:The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific(New York:Random House,2014).

[20] Steinberg and O'Hanlon,Strategic Reassurance and Resolve,p.20.

[21] For a detailed analysis,see Bill Emmott,Rivals:How the Power Struggle Between China,India and Japan Will Shape Our Next Decade(New York:Harcourt,2008).

[22] Yan Xuetong,"How China can defeat America,"New York Times,November21,2011.

[23] Fareed Zakaria,"Obama needs to lead with feeling,"Washington Post,May8,2014.

[24] Carla Norrlof and Simon Reich,"What would Kindleberger say:The US and China as world economic leaders and stabilizers,"unpublished paper,2014.

第五章　绝对衰落：美国会像罗马一样吗？

我们是罗马人吗？卡伦·墨菲以一本颇受欢迎的书的书名提出了这个问题，他的结论是“也许是吧”。?3~w′w·d~.¨c·o~m·\卡,卡-小¨税′罔+ `已^发_布?罪′薪`漳!截-\0,0/暁~税`惘. `埂.薪+最*全·[1]罗马没有屈服于另一个帝国的崛起。但正如我们前面所看到的，它遭受了社会、经济以及架构上的绝对衰落，以至于无法保护自己免受野蛮部落的入侵。一些分析家们认为，对外部使用武力的代价就是削弱内部的经济，从而因“帝国的过度扩张”导致绝对衰落。[2]迄今为止，这个理论与美国的历史并不般配，因为在过去几十年里，国防和外交事务的支出在GDP中所占的份额一直在下降。

尽管如此，美国的相对实力可能仍会衰落。不是因为“帝国的过度扩张”，而应归于国内原因。当人们对自己的文化和制度失去信心时，罗马就从内部开始腐烂了：精英们为争夺